Oil prices that rallied at $103 a few days ago following US President Donald Trump kick against Iran’s peace proposal dropped below $97 a barrel on Thursday, October 1, as recovering shipments from the Gulf eased supply concerns after September’s sharp rally.
Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $96.92, while US West Texas Intermediate declined 1.4% to $89.18 by 5.20 am Nigerian time. Both were intraday figures, according to Reuters.
For Nigeria, a sustained decline would work in two directions. Refineries could face lower crude-purchase costs, creating room for cheaper fuel.
Oil exporters would receive less per barrel, assuming other pricing conditions remained unchanged.
Thursday’s move alone does not establish that Nigerian petrol prices have fallen.
Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loading at its Red Sea port of Yanbu on September 29 after restarting its East-West Pipeline, Reuters reported.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels daily over the preceding week, around their 2025 average.
Its estimate includes shipments by vessels operating with their tracking transponders switched off, making it an assessment of flows rather than a complete count of publicly visible cargoes.
US inventory figures added evidence of greater crude availability. The Energy Information Administration’s table for September 25 showed commercial crude stocks at 427.3 million barrels, up from 426.4 million a week earlier.
Finished-fuel stocks moved in the opposite direction. Petrol inventories fell to 204.4 million barrels from 206 million, while distillates, which include diesel, declined to 105.2 million from 107.4 million. More crude in storage therefore did not mean more petrol and diesel were immediately available.
Crude is the raw material for petrol, but it is only one part of the retail bill. Refining, distribution, and marketing also contribute to the price motorists pay, as the EIA’s explanation of fuel pricing sets out.
For Nigerian buyers, exchange rates affect how a dollar-denominated cost translates into naira. A weaker naira could absorb some of the benefit of cheaper crude.
Fuel already purchased at higher prices also means a morning fall on international markets need not produce an immediate reduction at filling stations.
The latest decline follows a September gain of roughly 14% for Brent, so it has only begun to reverse the previous month’s increase.
The next evidence of relief for Nigerian motorists would be lower refinery or depot selling prices, followed by reductions at the pump.
