By Ayo Kehinde
Amid report on Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics that Nigeria’s annual inflation fell for the second straight month in May to 17.93 per cent, countering the impact of rising food prices and a recent currency devaluation, the World Bank has said Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to rise to the fifth highest in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2021, behind only Zimbabwe, Zambia, South Sudan and Angola.
This was disclosed at the presentation of Nigeria’s Development Report for the first six months of 2021 by the World Bank in Abuja.
The bank said over 11 million more Nigerians are also expected to lose their jobs.
According to the bank, inflation is also pushing seven million more Nigerians into poverty due to falling purchasing power.
Among factors the bank says are responsible for the challenges are insecurity and conflict as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.
The World Bank also said the economic growth in Nigeria is projected to remain below the population growth in the period under review.
On Tuesday, however, the Bureau of Statistics said Nigeria’s annual inflation fell for the second straight month in May to 17.93 per cent, countering the impact of rising food prices and a recent currency devaluation.
The Bureau said the figure reduced by 0.19 per cent from the 18.12 per cent recorded in April, 2021, adding that on month-on-month basis, the headline index rose by 1.01 per cent in May 2021.
The NBS made this known in its Consumer Price Index, CPI, report of May 2021.
According to the report, “On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.01 percent in May 2021. This is 0.04 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in April 2021 (0.97 percent).
“The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 17.93 percent (year-on-year) in May 2021. This is 0.19 percent points lower than the rate recorded in April 2021 (18.12 percent).”
NBS said increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the Headline index.
The urban inflation rate, according to the bureau, increased by 18.51 percent (year-on-year) in May 2021 from 18.68 percent recorded in April 2021, while the rural inflation rate increased by 17.36 percent in May 2021 from 17.57 percent in April 2021.
On a month-on-month basis, NBS noted that the urban index rose by 1.04 percent in May 2021, up by 0.05 percentage points compared to the rate recorded in April 2021 (0.99), while the rural index rose by 0.98 percent in May 2021, up by 0.03 points compared to the rate that was recorded in April 2021 (0.95 percent).
It explained that the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending May 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 15.50 percent, showing a 0.46 percent point rise from 15.04 percent recorded in April 2021.
NBS said the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.09 percent in May 2021. This is higher than 15.63 percent reported in April 2021, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in May 2021 is 14.94 percent compared to 14.48 percent recorded in April 2021.
In terms of All Item Index, the report said the composite food index rose by 22.28 percent in May 2021 compared to 22.72 percent in April 2021.
It added that the average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending May 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.18 percent, 0.60 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2021(18.58) percent.
The NBS said “on month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.05 percent in May 2021, up by 0.06 percent points from 0.99 percent recorded in April 2021.
“This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread, Cereals, Milk, Cheese, Eggs, Fish, Soft drinks, Coffee, Tea and Cocoa, Fruits, Meat, Oils and fats and Vegetables.
“All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 13.15 percent in May 2021, up by 0.41 percent when compared with 12.74 percent recorded in April 2021.
“On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.24 percent in May 2021. This was up by 0.25 percent when compared with 0.99 percent recorded in April 2021.
“The highest increases were recorded in prices of Pharmaceutical products, Garments, Shoes and other footwear, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Furniture and furnishing, Carpet and other floor covering, Motor cars, Hospital services, Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Other services in respect of personal and transport equipment, Gas, Household textile and Non-durable household goods.
“The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 11.50 percent for the twelve-month period ending May 2021; this is 0.25 percent points higher than 11.25 percent recorded in April 2021.”
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