From Abubakar Hashim
After a marathon and last minute skilfully diplomatic engagements with ECOWAS delegation led by Nigeria’s former Head of State, Gen Abdulsalam Abubakar, Niger junta leader has proposed a 3- year time table to civilian government.
In a late night live local TV broadcast, Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, further revealed that “ any attempt of military intervention, will not be an easy walk in the park as it will be stiffly resisted”.
ECOWAS delegation is yet to respond to his proposal of a 3- year transition to civil rule.
The ECOWAS delegation that flew into Niamey, Niger, on a Nigerian Presidential jet, was accorded full and red carpet diplomatic reception and was received at the airport by the junta leader himself.
Yesterday’s marathon meeting was the last ditch effort to find an amicable settlement to the July 26 coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum, who, democratically, came into power in 2021.
The military junta had earlier placed a high treason charge on Bazoum, further stating that an attempt to intervene will also result in the death of Bazoum, who is still in their safe custody.
Even if ECOWAS intervenes and removes the junta, as it did with the AFRC in Sierra Leone in 1997, when late Ahmad Tejan Kabba was reinstated from Guinea to reclaim his presidential mandate, Niger situation is different for three compelling reasons:
1. Unlike Sierra Leone, Niger is the headquarters for the Multinational Joint Task Force MJTF fighting the jihadists in the entire Sahel region from Libya to Mauritania. This is compounded by the huge size of Niger, with multiple militant hideouts and caves. Niger is already an insecure territory for years. An intervention will trigger the insecurity in Niger and its closest neighbours, particularly Nigeria, that is battling with Boko Haram, ISIS, ISWAP and other terrorist attacks since 2009.
2. Intervention will inevitably lead to a proxy war in the region, with Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, all military governments, will support Niger.
3. Humanitarian and refugee crisis will spill over in the region. Nigeria alone has over 5,000 refugees in Niger. Niger and Nigeria shared a lot in common, with inter-marriages and similar dialects.
ECOWAS will need a deep rethink of what next strategy to deploy to restore civilian rule, through ongoing sanctions to quicken the pace of the transition time table by the junta.
Meanwhile, ECOWAS sanctions are bitting harder by the day, essential commodities like food, drugs and salaries for civil and military personnel have thinned out.
This is worsened by incessant attacks by Jihadists in the Sahel, resulting in loss of soldiers in the war fronts in the past few days.
The coup Leader, Gen Tchiani, is now boxed in a cubicle. Though he has the overwhelming support of his people, who now volunteer in thousands to join the army to resist military intervention and neighbouring fellow military juntas like Mali, Burkina and Guinea, he lacks the financial muscle to govern a country that is ranked as one of the poorest countries in the world.
