By Ayo Kehinde
Following it’s observation of the ongoing Emir contestation in Kano State, Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited says the socio political and security dynamics that are assessed present an increase in the risk of social upheaval, including public demonstrations, civil unrest, and violent criminality as well as security forces operations in parts of Kano State, North West, Nigeria.
In the report, signed by it’s managing director, Dr Kabiru Adamu and made available to THISAGE Online, the foremost Nigeria security organization said the reinstatement of Muhammadu Sanusi II as Emir of Kano and the subsequent legal controversies have already triggered public demonstrations.
‘The discontent among supporters of both the reinstated Emir and the deposed Emir poses a significant risk of civil unrest. Protests have been reported in Gaya and other affected emirates, with participants lighting bonfires and chanting anti-government slogans,”it said in the report, adding that
“This unrest has the potential to escalate into widespread civil disorder if not
managed properly. The tensions between supporters of different factions could lead to violent clashes.
“The immediate arrest order for former Emir Aminu Ado Bayero, accused of attempting to forcibly return to the palace, highlights the volatility of the situation.
“Such incidents could provoke violent confrontations between opposing groups, increasing the risk of injuries or fatalities
“Furthermore, the crisis has significant political implications, affecting the stability of Kano State. The legal battles and political manoeuvres surrounding the emirate’s leadership may erode public trust in the government.
“Political instability can lead to
a breakdown in law and order, further exacerbating security challenges in the state
“It is assessed as credible that the Kano chieftaincy crisis presents multiple security and safety challenges, including the risk of civil unrest, violent clashes, and political instability as well as security forces action, ”
According to the organisation in the report “addressing these issues requires a multi-faceted approach involving dialogue, legal adherence, and effective security measure.”
Its detailed analysis of the points at issue is provided below ;
Background and Key Developments
The crisis has its roots in a controversial 2019 Emirates Council Law, passed by the Kano State House of Assembly, which fragmented the Kano Emirate into five separate emirates: Kano, Bichi, Karaye, Rano, and Gaya.
This law was generally assessed as an
attempt by former Governor Abdullahi Ganduje to curtail the power of Sanusi LamidoSanusi, the 14th Emir of Kano.
From 2017 when Emir Sanusi was sworn in, he developed frosty relations with then Governor Ganduje. This led to his sack and banishment from Kano in 2020, with the state government led by Ganduje accusing him of “total disrespect” towards the traditional institutions and of financial misappropriation.
In March 2023, Ganduje’s anointed candidate lost the governorship election to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), whose leader, a former governor of the state, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso had indicated during campaign that there will be a review of the law that
fragmented Kano emirate.
Although Ganduje has moved on to become the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party at the center, he has been seen as keen on maintaining political control of Kano in spite of the NNPP being
the ruling party in the state.
This situation continues to pitch Ganduje against Kwankwaso.
In this regard, on May 23, 2024 the Kano State House of Assembly passed a bill which dissolved the new emirates, effectively reversing the 2019 law.
Governor Abba Yusuf swiftly signed this bill into law and reappointed Emir Sanusi as the sole and the 16th Emir of Kano. This action led to the immediate removal of the emirs of the 15th Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero and those of the other four emirates, with the state government giving them a 48-hour ultimatum to vacate their palaces.
Legal Contest and Counterclaims
The decision to reinstate Sanusi has been legally contested. The Federal High Court in Kano issued an order halting the enforcement of the new law and Sanusi’s
reinstatement.
This injunction came after Alhaji Aminu Babba Dan Agundi, the Sarkin Dawaki Babba, filed a lawsuit against the state government’s actions.
The court ordered all parties to maintain the status quo until a hearing scheduled for June 3, 2024.
However, arguing that the court order was yet to be served to the state government, it went ahead with the reinstatement of Sanusi after his return to Kano on May 24, 2024, and preparations for his installation proceeded, escalating tensions.
The 15th Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero returned to Kano on May 25, 2024 and cited the court order to claim that he was the substantive Emir. This led the State governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to issue
an order for his arrest. However, all the security organisations in Kano held a press briefing on May 25, 2024, where they restated their commitment to public peace and indicated they will enforce the court order.
On May 27, 2024 the State government
received the court order. Unconfirmed reports indicate that on the same date, a court ordered the 15th Emir, Ado Bayero, to stop parading himself as the Emir.
Political and Social Implications
The crisis underscores the delicate balance between traditional authority and political power in Nigeria, with significant implications for governance and social cohesion in Kano State.
Rising tensions were evident around the Kano Emir’s Palace after Governor
Abba Yusuf directed the state police commissioner to arrest the 15th Emir, Aminu Ado Bayero, accusing him of creating unrest and attempting to forcibly return to the palace
following his dethronement.
Unlike other deposed emirs, Bayero returned to Kano, supported by followers chanting Quranic verses. In response, Governor Yusuf ordered
his immediate arrest, accusing him of exacerbating state tensions. Although the state government initially accused some federal government officials of backing the 15th Emir’s return, it later retracted this statement and that it was misled.
Current Situation and Protests
The Kano State Police Command has declared that all security agencies will adhere to the court order preventing the reinstatement of Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II.
Commissioner of Police Usaini Gumel emphasised the commitment to maintaining, peace in the state and warned against inciting violence over the emirate dispute.
On May 26, 2024, residents of Gaya town, one of the five emirates affected by the
repeal of the Kano Emirates Council Law, protested the new law.
While the dethroned Emir of Gaya vacated the palace quietly, some community members protested the
dissolution of their emirate.
Protests intensified with young demonstrators demanding the reinstatement of Ado Bayero, lighting bonfires on major roads, and chanting anti-government slogans.
Placards read: “Abba Kabir Yusuf, Obey Court Order,” “Court Brought You,” “You Must Obey the Court,” “Aminu Is Still Our Emir,” and “We Are Against Injustice” .
Assessment
The reinstatement of Muhammadu Sanusi II as Emir of Kano and the subsequent legal controversies have already triggered public demonstrations.
The discontent among supporters of both the reinstated Emir and the deposed Emir poses a significant risk of civil unrest.
Protests have been reported in Gaya and other affected emirates, with participants lighting bonfires and chanting anti-government slogans.
This unrest has the potential to escalate into widespread civil disorder if not
managed properly. The tensions between supporters of different factions could lead to violent clashes.
The immediate arrest order for former Emir Aminu Ado Bayero, accused of attempting to forcibly return to the palace, highlights the volatility of the situation.
Such incidents could provoke violent confrontations between opposing groups, increasing the risk of injuries or fatalities
Furthermore, the crisis has significant political implications, affecting the stability of Kano State. The legal battles and political manoeuvres surrounding the emirate’s leadership may erode public trust in the government.
Political instability can lead to
a breakdown in law and order, further exacerbating security challenges in the state
It is assessed as credible that the Kano chieftaincy crisis presents multiple security and safety challenges, including the risk of civil unrest, violent clashes, and political instability as well as security forces action.
Addressing these issues requires a
multifaceted approach involving dialogue, legal adherence, and effective security measures.
Advisory
Staff in Kano and who are in social upheaval hot spots and in the proximity of thepalaces and the government house are reminded to:
● Stock up on supplies and other essentials
● Maintain a low profile and situational awareness.
● Always carry a means of identification to facilitate verification.
● Monitor local media and news reports for updates on the situation.
● Keep a safe distance from crowds and law enforcement presences to
avoid getting caught in the situation.
● Itineraries should be planned carefully, with realistic contingency plans
in place to cater for impromptu movement disruptions. Reduce
movement to only critical activities,
● Train and acquire skills and capabilities in crisis management tailored to specific risks like social upheaval, which can escalate to riots.
● Comply with journey management procedures, and confirm the status of
your route and contingency before departure.
● Use discretion when answering phone calls or discussing sensitive
information in public areas.
Additionally, you should note that:
● Maintaining situational awareness and vigilance of potential threats in
your immediate environment is paramount at all times.
● Incorporate a heightened level of caution and vigilance compared to
what you employ in normal circumstances.
● Do not engage in arguments or confrontations with protesters,
counter-protesters or law enforcement.
● If caught up in the protest, assess the situation, identify exit routes, seek shelter if necessary, keep a low profile, communicate your location, and cooperate with authorities.
Additional considerations for corporate organisations:
● Ensure you have in place asset tracking functions,
● Raise awareness of your staff and associates to the trend and the associated risks,
● Supply chain management and loss prevention should be enhanced to ensure the vulnerabilities and exposure of assets are determined and measures implemented to lower risks to as low as reasonably possible,
● Human Resources, Operations, and Security should determine vulnerable staff and implement measures to reduce their exposure.
● Organise training for staff to assist their threat appreciation and response capabilities.
