By Ayo Kehinde
Nigeria’s crude oil production remained below its quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), extending a streak of underperformance to eight consecutive months.
According to OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report, the country produced an average of 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, up from 1.31 mbpd in February. Despite the improvement of 69,000 bpd, output still lagged the 1.5 mbpd quota by 117,000 bpd.
The February figure marked a sharp month-on-month decline of 146,000 bpd, further widening the gap between actual production and the OPEC allocation.
This persistent shortfall highlights ongoing structural and operational challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector.
Although production showed signs of recovery in January, rising to 1.459 mbpd from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025, the gains proved short-lived as output dropped significantly in February.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also indicated weakening production towards the end of 2025 before a modest rebound in early 2026.
Overall, Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC quota for most of 2025, achieving the target in only a few months.
The country began the year strongly but saw output decline steadily afterward, with only brief periods of recovery.
Recent indications suggest a potential turnaround. Officials noted that production improved in mid-March following the completion of maintenance activities across key assets, expressing optimism that Nigeria could meet its quota in April if the momentum is sustained.
Despite the challenges, Nigeria remains Africa’s leading oil producer, though output continues to fall short of both quota and budget benchmarks.
