By Ayo Kehinde
For the first time in over a decade, Nigeria’s food inflation is on the brink of returning to single digits. A milestone last achieved in May 2015.
Fresh projections reported by BusinessDay show that food inflation, which stood at 10.84 percent year-on-year in December 2025, could slip below the 10-percent threshold once January 2026 figures are released.
The anticipated drop marks a dramatic turnaround from the nearly 40 percent recorded in December 2024, when soaring staple prices severely strained household budgets.
The last time Nigeria posted single-digit food inflation was in May 2015, when the rate settled at 9.78 percent.
Since then, food prices have climbed steadily, driven by currency depreciation, insecurity in farming regions, high transport costs, and supply chain bottlenecks.
Improved harvests across key food-producing states have boosted supplies of vegetables, grains and tubers, helping to moderate prices in major markets.
Government import waivers on select food items have also eased cost pressures, while relative exchange-rate stability has reduced volatility in imported food prices.
Economists say base effects are also playing a role, as current prices are being compared to the exceptionally high levels recorded a year earlier.
According to Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economics Associates, food inflation may already have dipped into single digits if not for recent revisions to the Consumer Price Index methodology, which added roughly three percentage points to measured inflation.
Market surveys show visible relief. In Lagos and other urban centres, prices of staples such as rice and tomatoes have fallen significantly from their 2024 peaks, offering consumers a respite after months of record-high costs.
Still, analysts caution against premature celebration. Structural weaknesses including inadequate storage infrastructure, insecurity in some agricultural belts, and persistent logistics challenges remain risks to sustained price stability.
If confirmed, a return to single-digit food inflation would represent more than a statistical milestone.
It would signal easing pressure on household incomes and could influence monetary policy decisions in the months ahead, as policymakers weigh the balance between inflation control and economic growth.
After ten years of relentless increases, the possibility of single-digit food inflation marks a turning point one that many Nigerians will hope proves durable.
