By Ayo Kehinde
The International Monetary Fund has trimmed Nigeria’s growth outlook, projecting the economy will expand by 4.1 percent in 2026 and edge up to 4.3 percent in 2027, amid mounting global uncertainties.
The forecasts, contained in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook released during the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, indicate a relatively stable trajectory for Nigeria despite rising external pressures.
Earlier in January, the Fund had projected stronger growth of about 4.4 percent, but revised the outlook downward following fresh global shocks.
Central to the downgrade is the impact of the Middle East conflict 2026, which has disrupted oil supply routes and driven up global energy prices.
The IMF warned that such developments are heightening inflationary pressures and tightening financial conditions, particularly for emerging economies like Nigeria.
While higher crude oil prices could boost government revenues, the broader macroeconomic effects remain mixed.
Rising petrol and diesel costs are already feeding into domestic inflation, worsening cost-of-living pressures for households and increasing operating expenses for businesses.
Globally, the IMF lowered its growth projection to 3.1 percent for 2026, with a modest recovery to 3.2 percent in 2027. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 3.9 percent before rebounding to 4.2 percent in 2027.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is forecast at 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027, placing Nigeria slightly below the regional average.
The IMF cautioned that developing economies remain vulnerable to external shocks and urged central banks to prioritise price stability, maintain clear policy communication, and avoid premature easing amid persistent inflation risks.
