From Victor Osula, Abuja
Nigeria’s crude oil exports generated an estimated ₦24.02 trillion in the first six months of 2026, reinforcing the country’s dependence on crude sales for foreign exchange even as domestic refiners continued to complain about inadequate feedstock.
An analysis of production and export data compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the country exported about 182.2 million barrels of crude between January and June.
Using the average monthly price of Bonny Light crude and an exchange rate of ₦1,365 to the dollar, those exports were worth approximately $17.6 billion, or ₦24.02 trillion.
Over the same period, Nigeria produced an estimated 263.65 million barrels of crude with a gross market value of $25.41 billion, equivalent to ₦34.69 trillion.
In practical terms, almost 69 per cent of the crude produced during the first half of the year was exported, while about 81.45 million barrels remained available for domestic refining, operational requirements, storage and inventory adjustments.
The figures underline an uncomfortable reality that has shaped Nigeria’s oil industry for decades. The country earns most of its foreign exchange by exporting crude, yet continues to face recurring debates over whether enough of that crude is being reserved for refineries at home.
At first glance, the export performance reflects a strong six months for Nigeria’s oil sector.
After production slipped to 36.68 million barrels in February, output recovered steadily, reaching 47.43 million barrels in May before easing slightly to an estimated 46.8 million barrels in June.
Average daily production also improved from 1.46 million barrels per day in January to 1.56 million barrels by June.
Exports followed a similar trend. Shipments increased from 31.31 million barrels in January to more than 33 million barrels in both May and June after falling sharply in February.
The value of those exports, however, was driven as much by international oil prices as by production itself.
Crude prices climbed significantly between March and May following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up the value of Nigeria’s exports.
Although prices moderated in June, they remained above levels recorded at the start of the year, helping lift total export earnings.
The estimates represent the gross market value of crude produced and exported rather than the amount that eventually accrues to government. Actual revenue is reduced by production-sharing contracts, joint venture arrangements, royalties, taxes, operating costs and other commercial obligations.
While the export figures paint a positive picture for foreign exchange earnings, they have also revived questions about Nigeria’s commitment to supplying crude to local refineries.
The Petroleum Industry Act introduced the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) to ensure that local refineries receive sufficient feedstock before excess crude is exported. Industry operators have repeatedly maintained that implementation has fallen short of expectations.
The issue moved to the centre of public debate earlier this year after Dangote Petroleum Refinery accused government agencies of failing to enforce the domestic supply framework, saying inadequate crude allocations were affecting its operations.
Also, the refinery temporarily suspended the sale of petrol in naira and requested payment in dollars before later returning to naira transactions.
In court filings before the Federal High Court in Lagos, the company maintained that reliable crude supply remained critical to sustaining refinery operations. The Federal Government has rejected claims that it deliberately frustrated local refining.
Modular refinery operators have also argued that obtaining consistent crude supplies remains difficult despite government efforts to expand domestic refining capacity.
Eche Idoko, Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, has previously said many modular refineries now source crude directly from private producers instead of relying on government allocations.
He has called for stricter enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation to ensure local processors receive adequate feedstock while Nigeria continues to meet its export commitments.
Crude exports remain Nigeria’s largest source of foreign exchange and a major contributor to public finances.
At the same time, successive governments have invested heavily in expanding domestic refining capacity to reduce fuel imports, strengthen energy security and retain more value within the economy.
That objective has become more realistic in recent years with the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, the rehabilitation of government-owned refineries and the gradual expansion of modular refining projects across the country.
For now, Nigeria continues to rely on both strategies. It needs export earnings to support external reserves and government finances, while also seeking to supply enough crude to local refineries capable of meeting domestic fuel demand.
The first half of 2026 shows the country generated substantial value from crude exports.
The next challenge is ensuring that the same barrels helping to earn foreign exchange also support a refining industry that has long been presented as the future of Nigeria’s oil economy.
