By Ayo Kehinde
The World Bank has warned that without urgent and decisive intervention, 20 of the world’s 26 poorest countries may remain in poverty by 2050, with only six potentially graduating to middle-income status. The revelation comes from a new analysis featured in the World Bank’s forthcoming Global Economic Prospects report, set for release on January 14, 2025.
The report highlights that these 26 low-income countries, home to over 40% of the global population surviving on less than $2.15 per day, have seen minimal economic progress over the past 15 years.
Unlike their predecessors, which benefited from accelerated growth, today’s low-income countries face compounded challenges, including conflict, climate change, and debt distress.
At the start of the 21st century, 63 countries were classified as low-income. Of these, 39—countries like India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh—have transitioned to middle-income status.
However, the remaining nations, joined by South Sudan and Syria in the 2010s, have stagnated economically. Over the last 15 years, their inflation-adjusted GDP per capita has grown by less than 0.1% annually, the report states.
“The next 25 years present a critical window of opportunity for the world’s poorest nations. With decisive action, they can achieve sustained economic progress,” said **Indermit Gill,” the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
Seventeen of the 26 poorest countries are grappling with conflict or fragility, while nearly all are highly vulnerable to climate change. More than half are landlocked, surrounded by other impoverished nations, limiting their ability to stimulate growth through trade. Additionally, many are already in debt distress or at high risk of it.
Despite these challenges, the report identifies significant untapped opportunities.
These nations hold over 60% of the world’s cobalt reserves and 50% of its graphite, both critical for renewable energy technologies. They also have immense potential for solar energy production and rapidly growing working-age populations, which could serve as a catalyst for economic transformation.
The World Bank cited Nepal and Rwanda as examples of countries that transitioned from low- to middle-income status despite significant adversity.
“The global fight to end extreme poverty cannot succeed without focused efforts on the 26 poorest nations. Many are facing the triple threat of conflict, climate change, and crippling debt. Urgent action from national policymakers and the global community is needed to reverse this trajectory,” said **Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank Group.
The analysis underscores that political stability and growth-oriented policies are critical for lifting countries out of poverty.
It calls for reforms that channel public and private resources into investment and create a conducive business environment for sustained economic expansion.
