Clockwise: The polls, Obi, Atiku and Tinubu
NOI polls, an organisation that provides polling services, thinking research and relevant data on public opinion, has put presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, LP, ahead of Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the governing All Progressives Congress, APC, in an early public poll it conducted weeks before the official kick-off of electioneering on September 28, 2022. NOI polls is owned by former Minster of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, currently Director General of World Trade Organsiation, WTO. It is named after her, thus; Ngozi Okonjo Iweala-Polls, NOI polls.
In the poll conducted across the six-geo-political zones in the country, namely the Southsouth, Southwest, Northeast, Northcentral, Northwest and Southeast, NOI polls disclosed that as of September 15, 2022, the presidential race is a three-horse race among the APC, PDP and LP.
Explaining the methodology used by NOI, Atedo Peterside, founder of Atedo N.A. Peterside Polls, ANAP, during an appearance in ARISE TV programme, The Morning Show, on Thursday, said the main questions put to respondents was, “Suppose the Presidential Election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for.” ANAP is a political mobilisation group for the 2023 general elections.
Peterside, who is the founder of IBTC Bank and currently a member of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, said in the poll, Obi polled a total 21 per cent ahead of 13 per cent for Abubakar and 13 percent for Tinubu, meaning that the candidates of the two major party tied. Kwakwanso came a distant fourth with three per cent and the rest, the poll classified as others, scored one percent. All the candidates took the lead in their respective geo-political zones.
In the outcome of the poll posted on ANAP website, Obi got majority of his score from his southeast zone with 68 per cent and 46 percent in the nearby Southsouth zone, a traditional enclave of the PDP. Abubakar won in his Northeast zone with 28 per cent and surprisingly took the lead in the Northwest, the traditional base of the APC, with 20 percent. Tinubu won in the southwest with 18 per cent and in the North Central with 16 per cent. Obi made a good showing in the Southwest with 16 per cent, behind Tinubu.
“The sampled view in Nigeria was made to reflect the geo-political zones,” said Peterside, adding that the polls would be conducted after electioneering kicks-off on September 28, and then just before the conduct of the elections on February 25, 2023, to get a final picture of how the candidates stand.
He said the NOI polls was always close to the real results as it happened in 2011 when it gave President Goodluck Jonathan the lead and he won and then in 2015 when its final poll gave the results to President Muhammadu Buhari, who also won that election.
Disclosing that 32 per cent of respondents polled where yet to make up their mind, and eight out of every 10 voter was likely to vote in the upcoming elections, he said that majority of the undecided were women and that the findings does not really mean that youths were more eager to vote than women. Meaning that the undecided may alter the current polling if they took their stand.
In his prediction of the outcome of the presidential election, Peterside said;
“Possibly there would be no winner in the first ballot. Based on today’s poll (September 15, 2022) the run-off may be between Obi and either Atiku of Asiwaju,” he said, adding that the next poll after the kick-off of campaigns and before election would add questions about insecurity, unemployment, religion, economy and which of the candidates is likely to solve them. Meanwhile, the APC has reacted by describing the NOI polls as inconsistent with reality. Director of Media and Publicity of the APC, presidential campaign council, Bayo Onanuga said the polls made unrealistic and unjustifiable predictions, citing examples from the 2015 presidential elections poll to buttress his claim
“For example, preparatory to the March 2015 presidential elections, NOI Polls published in October the 2014 results of a “viability Poll, which used the concept of familiarity and net favourability position to survey. In the results, NOI calimed that President Goodluck Jonathan has the best overall rating at 99% and net favourability probability of +_ 25. By contrast, NOI dismissed the then All Progressives Congress candidate, Muhammadu Buhari as a “borderline candidate”, who needed, “huge public relations to shore up his performance.
“The NOI has chosen the preferred candidate and has decided to use fake, dubious statistics to package him to the Nigerian voters.”
“The NOI has chosen the preferred candidate and has decided to use fake, dubious statistics to package him to the Nigerian voters.”
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